Marginal Happiness

Sector Plays

2008-03-11T11:18:00.001-04:00

Fund Name	Ticker
Consumer Discretionary SPDR	XLY
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR	XLP
DIAMONDS Trust, Series 1	DIA
Energy Select Sector SPDR	XLE
Fidelity Commonwealth Trust	ONEQ
Financial Select Sector SPDR	XLF
Health Care Select Sect SPDR	XLV
Industrial Select Sector SPDR	XLI
iShares Cohen & Steers Realty Majors	ICF
iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index	DVY
iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average	IYT
iShares Dow Jones US Basic Materials	IYM
iShares Dow Jones US Cons Non-Cycl	IYK
iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Cycl	IYC
iShares Dow Jones US Energy	IYE
iShares Dow Jones US Financial Sector	IYF
iShares Dow Jones US Financial Svcs	IYG
iShares Dow Jones US Healthcare	IYH
iShares Dow Jones US Industrial	IYJ
iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate	IYR
iShares Dow Jones US Technology	IYW
iShares Dow Jones US Telecom	IYZ
iShares Dow Jones US Total Market Ind	IYY
iShares Dow Jones US Utilities	IDU
iShares Goldman Sachs Natural Resourc	IGE
iShares Goldman Sachs Networking	IGN
iShares Goldman Sachs Semiconductor	IGW
iShares Goldman Sachs Software Index	IGV
iShares Goldman Sachs Technology Indx	IGM
iShares GS $ InvestTop Corp Bond	LQD
iShares Lehman 1-3 Year Treasury Bond	SHY
iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treas Bond	TLT
iShares Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury	IEF
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond	AGG
iShares Lehman TIPS Bond	TIP

Looking Ahead: October 29 through November 2, 2007

2007-10-29T11:58:00.000-04:00

Central Bank activities
October 30,31	United States	FOMC Meeting
October 31	Japan	Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting





The following indicators will be released this week...
Europe
October 30	Germany	Retail Sales (September)
		Unemployment (October)
	France	Unemployment (September)
	Italy	Producer Price Index (September)
October 31	EMU	Unemployment (September)
		Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (October, flash)
	EU	Consumer and Business Confidence (October)
	France	Producer Price Index (September)

Asia/Pacific
October 29	Japan	Retail Sales (September)
October 30	Japan	Household Spending (September)
		Employment, Unemployment (September)
November 1	Australia	Retail Sales (September)
		Merchandise Trade Balance (September)

Americas
October 30	Canada	Industrial Product Price Index (September)
		Raw Materials Price Index (September)
October 31	Canada	Monthly Gross Domestic Product (August)
November 2	Canada	Employment Report (October)

Inverse Index Funds

2007-08-03T09:19:00.000-04:00

Leveraged Inverse (Short) Sector ETFs
ProShares UltraShort Basic Materials (SMN)
ProShares UltraShort Consumer Goods (SZK)
ProShares UltraShort Consumer Services (SCC)
ProShares UltraShort Financials (SKF)
ProShares UltraShort Health Care (RXD)
ProShares UltraShort Industrials (SIJ)
ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG)
ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (SRS)
ProShares UltraShort Semiconductors (SSG)
ProShares UltraShort Technology (REW)
ProShares UltraShort Utilities (SDP)

2007-05-24T07:54:00.001-04:00

Basic interest rates
Country	Rate	Current	Last change	Next Meeting
USA (Fed)	Federal funds rate	5.25%	29.06.06 +0.25%	27.06.07
EU (ECB)	Refinancing tender	3.75%	14.03.07 +0.25%	6.06.07
UK (BoE)	Repo rate	5.25%	11.01.07 +0.25%	6.07.07
Switzerland (SNB)	3 month LIBOR range	1.50%-2.50%	14.12.06 +0.25%	20.06.07
Canada (BoC)	Overnight rate target	4.25%	24.05.06 +0.25%	29.05.07
Australia (RBA)	Cash rate	6.25%	08.11.06 +0.25%	06.06.07
New Zealand (RBNZ)	Official cash rate	7.25%	08.12.05 +0.25%	26.07.07
Japan (BoJ)	Discount rate	0.50%	21.02.06 +0.25%	17.06.07

BOJ Schedule

2006-06-24T13:07:00.000-04:00

July 3 Tankan survey

July 14 BOJ
Aug 11 BOJ

"Core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food, climbed 0.6 percent in May from a year earlier, gaining for a seventh month, the statistics bureau said today in Tokyo. The result was in line with economists' forecasts...

Governor Fukui said on June 20 that the central bank needs to adjust interest rates from near zero ``without delay, little by little'' as the economy keeps expanding and prices continue to rise..." - Bloomberg News June 30th, 2006

Past corrections

2006-06-14T09:06:00.000-04:00

from BCA

day 23

2006-06-13T10:09:00.000-04:00

according to Jeff Saut.

Rounding second base

2006-06-05T23:14:00.000-04:00

The market climate does not look bearish with SP500 support holding at 1260 and the NYA50R between 30 and 50. Volatility remains within nominal range for a late bull run. Market action will probably have a few more sessions of herk-jerks until enough optimism has been extinguished. According to Jeff Saut this is about day 18 of a 17-25 session downside process.

Local minima

2006-05-22T20:06:00.001-04:00

I am pleased at the recent correction in the market, especially at the recent unwinding of commodities positions held by hedge funds. The NYSE and NDX still remain at overbought levels, with bullish sentiment looking for an immediate rebound. We have not observed a day of buyer's capitulation yet, but I expect it to arrive in the next ten days.

The nya50r remains stubbornly above the magic 25%. My shopping list includes IAG, GG, CHK, and COP.

Checking in

2005-11-30T23:30:00.000-05:00

I'm uncomfortable with recent market valuations. The SP500 has reported good earnings growth and solid profit margins, but I remain unconvinced this will continue into 2006. Is today a good time to go long? A lot of really really bright folks are sitting in cash, waiting for a financial accident. Plus we have a hawkish Fed, with a new chairman, ratcheting up the Funds rate. There's a little too much leverage floating around. I doubt that risk is being appropriately managed.

Been fishin'

2005-11-30T23:05:00.000-05:00

I decided to throw in my fishing line in mid-October. I scaled into a couple of small positions after the NYSE Percent Above 50DMA reached 19-something on Oct 13th. Can't always catch the bottom, but I'm happy with the outcome so far.

Nearing the bottom..

2005-10-13T09:14:00.000-04:00

The market is finally approaching a broad-based low. I'll start nibbling soon. I expect another day or two of sliding action until the $nya50r briefly touches the high-teens.

Looks more promising

2005-09-26T14:41:00.000-04:00

though, not quite at the 20% mark yet.

Elephant Tracks?

2005-08-15T23:06:00.000-04:00

SAC Capital Advisors LLC, run by Steven A. Cohen, operates $6 billion in assets. With a smidgen of leverage, I guess they control $90 billion. They are a quiet outfit and I pay attention when their name pops up. About two weeks ago, they filed two schedule 13g's, in Northwest Airlines (NWAC) and Delta Air Lines (DAL).

The Northwest equity is split among SAC Multiquant Fund (1,600 shares), CR Intrinsic Investors LLC (600,000 shares), SAC Capital Associates/SAC Capital Management, and Mr. Cohen.

July 27th, 2005 NWAC 4.98 million shares (5.7% of class) worth $32.4 million.

There is a similar arrangement with DAL shares.

July 26th, 2005 DAL 9.5 million shares (6.1% of class) worth $32 million.

I don't know what Mr. Cohen has up his sleeve. Perhaps he unwound these positions already; or, it remains in play. With my poor eyesight it's hard to say if I'm way behind the elephant or

standing in his path.

Market Dipstick

2005-08-15T22:52:00.000-04:00

Nope. I'm still waiting for more favorable weather.

Sidelined

2005-07-27T08:16:00.000-04:00

I'm not finding a lot of attractive bargains at this time.

Reminder

2005-07-15T09:43:00.000-04:00

Today is options expiration.

Cookie Jar

2005-07-13T22:47:00.000-04:00

I'm disappointed how Morgan Stanley's (MWD) Purcell saga ended. Severance pay for Stephen Crawford ($32 million), Philip Purcell ($113 million package), and David Sidwell ($10.5 million) will total $155.5 million. Sidwell hasn't left yet, but he's still guaranteed $10.5 million thru October '05. This relies on the NY Times estimate for Purcell's other little perks like the charity fund and vested options.

Dude, that's $155.5 million.

According to Reuters, MWD has 1,090 million diluted shares outstanding. So, that's $155.5/1,090 shares = $0.14 /share. Compare that to the declared 1Q05 $0.27 dividend.

Paying off the execs amounts to 52% of the 1Q05 dividend. But wait, what if Purcell and his gang were mightily effective during their tenure? A glance at the chart shows the nearest competitors by market cap, Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs, consistently outperforming Morgan Stanley on a per share basis. But to be fair, lets examine return on equity.

MWD MER GS
15.5 14.4 18.0 ROE(ttm)

The picture improves slightly here. But, if Purcell had pulled this off in Washington Heights, it would be called looting.

Brand New

2005-07-09T23:31:00.000-04:00

just getting started...