Checking in
I'm uncomfortable with recent market valuations. The SP500 has reported good earnings growth and solid profit margins, but I remain unconvinced this will continue into 2006. Is today a good time to go long? A lot of really really bright folks are sitting in cash, waiting for a financial accident. Plus we have a hawkish Fed, with a new chairman, ratcheting up the Funds rate. There's a little too much leverage floating around. I doubt that risk is being appropriately managed.
posted by Sidney Falco at
11:30 PM
2 Comments:
Sidney,
Happy Thanksgiving to you also. In the next 7 or so trading days the NDX will hit 1745-1750.
This will complete a 5 wave up pattern that commenced on 10/13, notice the long 3rd wave up.
We will then see a corrective ABC pattern emerge which should play out by year end. Essentially, DEC goes nowhere, just up and down.
After that, my best guess is a nice 5 wave pattern heading down that lasts from sometime in Jan through early March.
Jan 15th starts Q2 reporting with FASB options expensing, watch the SOX and NDX, they could get clobbered.
Overall my sense is get your Bermuda shorts out for January.
By
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